EDN: JZZHTZ
Authors & Affiliations
Chertovskikh O.I., Belov A.A., Bereznev V.P.
Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Chertovskikh O.I. – Engineer. Contacts: 52, st. Bolshaya Tulskaya, Moscow, Russia, 115191. Tel: +7 (495) 955-23-11-52; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..
Belov A.A. – Senior Researcher.
Bereznev V.P. – Researcher, Cand. Sci. (Tech.).
Abstract
The paper devoted to uncertainty analysis of the irradiated fuel. A brief description of the used parametric method for the uncertainty evaluation purpose is presented. As a test example, the uncertainty of the nitride fuel ETVS-16 campaign calculation is evaluated. In the work the design parameters uncertainties – the uncertainty of the fuel mass, the share of Pu in the fuel and the share of Pu-239 in the plutonium vector are evaluated.
To evaluate the uncertainty of the ETVS campaign calculation using the parametric stochastic method, the sample of perturbed nuclear concentrations is formed according to a multivariate normal distribution; multivariate calculations are carried out; statistical processing of the results are performed (estimate of the mean and unbiased estimate of the variance). The paper provides brief recommendations for using Monte Carlo methods to estimate uncertainty. The results of a methodological study of the sample mean dependence and standard deviation behavior on the sample size are presented. It is revealed that the relative errors in nuclide concentrations vary within 1,2 % in samples of different sizes (100, 500 and 1000 options), the most strong variation is observed in the Am, Cm isotopes and some Pu isotopes. It is illustratively shown that the probabilistic average converges to the reference value, starting from approximately N=700 number of the multivariate calculations.
Keywords
fast reactors, input data uncertainty, parametric statistics, fuel campaign, BPSD, CORNER, SUN
Article Text (PDF, in Russian)
References
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UDC 621.039:519.23
Problems of Atomic Science and Technology. Series: Nuclear and Reactor Constants, 2024, no. 3, 3:3
